Possible scenario
Regime Transition Without Invasion
15% Chance
Cuba's deteriorating economy and U.S. pressure could trigger an internal political transition before any U.S. military action. This would be highly uncertain, but it could allow Trump to claim success while avoiding a direct intervention.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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