Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington and Havana reach some form of bargain that allows Trump to claim military force is unnecessary. Cuba's economic collapse gives President Miguel Díaz-Canel and the Cuban armed forces incentives to accept relief tied to migration controls, prisoner releases, or political concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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