Possible scenario
Coercive Diplomacy Continues
28% Chance
Trump's statement may be intended to pressure Havana rather than signal a finished agreement. In this path, the United States keeps sanctions, military planning, and public threats in place while offering Cuba a last opportunity to make concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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