Possible scenario
Contained Intermittent Attacks
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued Houthi missile and drone attempts against Saudi airports and Aramco-linked sites, but with Saudi air defenses limiting physical damage. Flight schedules remain vulnerable, while oil markets price a modest regional risk premium rather than a major supply outage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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