Possible scenario
Confirmed Infrastructure Damage
18% Chance
A more severe but less likely scenario is that a Houthi drone or missile penetrates defenses and damages a refinery, export terminal, pipeline, or major airport facility. This would produce a clearer market shock, especially in crude prices, Gulf aviation, and volatility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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