Possible scenario
Sovereign Downgrade
20% Chance
The political deadlock lasts long enough for S&P to conclude that fiscal consolidation is no longer credible. A downgrade would mark a material shift for Romanian funding costs, though spillovers to broader global markets would likely remain contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.7%
- Utilities -1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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