Possible scenario
Political Climbdown
20% Chance
The government concludes that a large bank tax could undermine competitiveness and credit supply. Healey still needs revenue, but shifts toward less market-sensitive measures, allowing bank shares to recover from pre-Budget weakness.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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