Possible scenario
Moderate Bank Surcharge
45% Chance
Healey uses the Budget to raise extra revenue from banks, but keeps the measure within a range already partly anticipated by investors. The package is framed as a contribution from lenders benefiting from higher interest rates while avoiding a major hit to credit supply.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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