Possible scenario
Large Bank Raid
25% Chance
The Chancellor opts for a bigger revenue grab to close the fiscal hole flagged by the IFS and the Iran war spending overrun. This would be a sharper negative surprise for UK lenders and would raise concerns about buybacks, dividends, and lending appetite.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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