Possible scenario
Capex Backlash Builds
25% Chance
The market focuses less on technical achievement and more on the cost of running a million-GPU cluster. Meta's AI spending has already escalated from the 2025 guidance, so investors may demand clearer evidence of monetization and operating leverage.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Utilities +0.3%
Tickers
- META-4.1%
- NVDA+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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