Possible scenario
Parliamentary Impasse Deepens
30% Chance
Fragmentation in the National Assembly prevents a durable fiscal compromise, and opposition parties force repeated concessions. Investors price a higher probability that France misses deficit-reduction targets, keeping sovereign spreads under pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.6%
- Utilities -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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