Possible scenario
Budget Deal Stabilizes
38% Chance
The most likely path is a negotiated fiscal package that preserves much of the announced €43 billion in 2027 savings while giving opposition blocs concessions. Markets do not fully regain confidence, but the immediate spiral in French sovereign risk pauses as investors see a credible path to budget passage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Utilities +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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