Possible scenario
Prolonged Missile Signaling
25% Chance
Pyongyang keeps pressure on Seoul with additional short-range missile tests or electronic disruption, while avoiding a direct strike. This would extend the risk premium around South Korea and Japan without creating a full crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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