Possible scenario
Controlled Deterrence Holds
50% Chance
The most likely path is a contained escalation cycle: Seoul, Washington and Tokyo strengthen surveillance and public deterrence while Pyongyang claims the missile test was defensive. No further confirmed DMZ blast occurs, and China urges restraint behind the scenes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.