Possible scenario
Border Incident Escalates
17% Chance
The DMZ blast dispute leads to a localized military confrontation, such as warning fire, another mine incident or a clash near the Northern Limit Line. Both governments would likely try to contain it, but the market reaction would be materially more risk-off.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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