Possible scenario
Labor Weakness Dominates
20% Chance
The labor-market focus highlighted in the 2025-2026 Fed communications becomes the binding constraint on policy. If hiring slows further, Williams' one-hike forecast may prove too hawkish rather than too dovish.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.8%
- Technology +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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