Possible scenario
Inflation Forces More
25% Chance
Inflation data remain firm enough that the Committee's median view moves back toward the more hawkish September projection path. Williams' remarks are then interpreted as the dovish edge of the FOMC rather than the center of gravity.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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