Possible scenario
Dovish Path Holds
45% Chance
Markets treat John Williams' remarks as a credible signal from the New York Fed that the Committee is converging on a shallow tightening path. Inflation is still above target, but labor-market risks keep the FOMC from validating the more hawkish read of the September projections.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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