Possible scenario
Sustained Trade Blockade
25% Chance
Iraq joins Pakistan and the United States in a more durable effort to squeeze Iranian overland trade and militia logistics. The disruption is significant for regional commerce but remains below a systemic energy or financial shock because major Iraqi oil export terminals keep operating.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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