Possible scenario
Military Escalation Iraq
20% Chance
Iran or Iran-backed groups retaliate against the closure with strikes or militia activity inside Iraq, especially near Kurdistan or US-linked facilities. The most likely escalation is limited and deniable, but it would still produce a sharper short-term oil and risk-volatility reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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