Possible scenario
Contained Border Lockdown
40% Chance
Iraq implements the Oct. 21 closure as a security and sanctions-alignment measure but avoids a broader military confrontation. Baghdad, Erbil, and Tehran use back channels to limit the disruption to passenger traffic, trucking, and sanctioned trade routes rather than oil infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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