Possible scenario
Negotiated Framework Advances
32% Chance
A bipartisan compromise advances by combining liability for reckless deployment with safe harbors for firms that follow recognized security standards. This path is plausible because the Trump administration has rejected a blanket shield but industry allies can still shape the details.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Business Services +0.7%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.2%
- -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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