Possible scenario
Winter Stagnation Persists
30% Chance
The Q3 slowdown carries into late 2026 as export demand remains unreliable and stimulus execution stays uneven. Germany avoids a deep recession, but the recovery narrative weakens and cyclicals underperform.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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