Possible scenario
Stimulus Gains Traction
15% Chance
Fiscal deployment improves after earlier bottlenecks, and the spending package begins to lift construction, defense and infrastructure orders. The effect is not large enough to transform the economy immediately, but it improves near-term sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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