Possible scenario
Soft Patch Rebounds
45% Chance
The ministry's description of the slowdown as temporary proves broadly correct. Factory orders and public investment stabilize after the Q3 lull, while the earlier export setback does not turn into a sustained contraction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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