Republican Narrow Hold

Sen. Pete Ricketts remains favored by Nebraska's Republican baseline, even after RCP and Cook move the race to Toss-up. The most likely path is a tighter-than-expected contest in which rural turnout, national GOP spending, and lingering Republican loyalty carry him over the line.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.