Possible scenario
Prolonged Count
15% Chance
The race is close enough that late mail ballots, provisionals, and possible recount procedures delay a clear winner. This is plausible because Toss-up ratings often coincide with tight margins and because independent candidacies can produce unusual county-level vote patterns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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