Possible scenario
Independent Upset
32% Chance
Dan Osborn or a similarly positioned independent consolidates anti-Ricketts voters while keeping enough distance from the Democratic label to win Republican-leaning independents. This scenario becomes more plausible if national Democratic groups quietly assist without making the race look partisan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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