Possible scenario
Omani Truce Track Revives
20% Chance
Mounting casualties and Saudi insistence on concrete Houthi concessions reopen a diplomatic channel through Oman and the United Nations. A limited pause is possible if the Houthis seek to preserve forces and Riyadh wants border security guarantees before further escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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