Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Escalates
30% Chance
The Houthis respond to battlefield losses with missile and drone attacks against Saudi territory, attempting to raise the cost of Riyadh’s refusal to accept a truce without concessions. This is a plausible near-term reaction given the earlier Riyadh strike and the group’s incentive to restore deterrence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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