Possible scenario
Coalition Momentum Holds
35% Chance
Yemeni government forces, backed by Saudi airpower and logistics, continue exploiting recent battlefield gains after the reported heavy Houthi casualties. The Houthis are likely to trade territory for time rather than accept Saudi terms immediately, keeping the war active but limiting near-term regional spillover.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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