Possible scenario
Democratic Appointment Occurs
20% Chance
A Democratic gubernatorial win, most plausibly by Rob Sand, leaves the appointment power in Democratic hands if Grassley exits before January 2029. This outcome would matter most if the U.S. Senate is closely divided after the 2026 midterms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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