Possible scenario
Network Expands
25% Chance
Investigators uncover signs that the sailor was one node in a wider Russian intelligence effort targeting UK military personnel. MI5, counter-terror police and the Ministry of Defence move quickly to identify contacts, handlers and possible data recipients.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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