Possible scenario
Fed Put Rejected
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Goolsbee's comment is read as consistent with the Fed's recent message: the dual mandate does not require cushioning investors from losses. Markets price a lower probability of near-term relief from the FOMC, especially after the recent forced selling in Treasuries.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Finance -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.