Possible scenario
Selective Rebound
20% Chance
Investors treat the September outflow as a capitulation signal rather than the start of a new leg lower. Bargain-hunting focuses on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, especially if global AI and memory-chip demand indicators remain resilient.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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