Possible scenario
Policy Stabilization
25% Chance
Korean authorities respond with stronger verbal support for the won and possible smoothing operations, limiting the feedback loop between currency weakness and equity outflows. Markets treat the response as credible enough to slow foreign selling, though not necessarily to reverse it fully.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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