Security Containment Holds

The most likely path is that Washington, London, EU naval forces and regional partners treat the alleged Houthi-al-Shabaab link as an intelligence and interdiction problem rather than a trigger for a wider campaign. More escorts, surveillance flights and interdictions limit the alliance's operational value and keep Red Sea transit risky but manageable.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.