Regional Escalation Broadens

A more serious escalation would require evidence that Houthi weapons, targeting support or financing materially improves al-Shabaab's ability to threaten shipping from Somalia. That would push the issue from maritime harassment toward a broader counterterrorism and trade-route crisis, though still below a systemic war shock.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.