Possible scenario
Low-Level Disruption Persists
30% Chance
The Houthi-al-Shabaab connection remains difficult to verify operationally, but enough incidents occur to keep shipowners cautious. The result is a continuation of the 2023-2026 Red Sea pattern: higher insurance, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and modest pressure on freight-sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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