Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and regional mediators push both sides toward a pause after the spike in strikes and casualties. Riyadh has incentives to cap the conflict before oil facilities face repeated attacks, while the Houthis may use recent strikes to claim leverage at the table.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.