Possible scenario
Contained Cross-Border Escalation
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued heavy fighting between the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council-aligned forces, Saudi airpower, and the Houthis without a decisive breakthrough. Riyadh keeps strikes focused on launch sites, supply routes, and Houthi columns, while most Houthi missiles and drones are intercepted before causing major oil-supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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