Possible scenario
South Asia Escalation
19% Chance
A less likely but important risk is that the optics of Russia drilling with Pakistan interact with existing India-Pakistan tensions. Any border incident or militant attack would be interpreted through the new alignment, lifting geopolitical risk premia over the following trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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