Possible scenario
India Recalibrates Posture
27% Chance
India is likely to respond because the drills complicate its long-standing defense relationship with Moscow. New Delhi may keep Russian energy and arms channels open while accelerating diversification through the United States, France, Israel and domestic suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Energy +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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