Possible scenario
U.S. Pressure Hardens
25% Chance
The Trump administration treats China's UN intervention as evidence of a wider contest over Cuba. Washington responds with tougher sanctions language, more pressure on Cuban military-linked entities, and warnings to banks or firms facilitating Havana's access to dollars.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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