Possible scenario
Humanitarian Relief Channels
15% Chance
Washington avoids a broad embargo rollback but permits narrowly defined humanitarian or fuel-related channels to reduce migration and unrest risks. China claims partial diplomatic credit, while the U.S. frames the move as aid to Cubans rather than support for the Díaz-Canel government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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