Possible scenario
Limited Military Clash
30% Chance
The deployment becomes part of a limited U.S. response package after another attack on American personnel or assets. Washington targets IRGC-linked facilities or militia infrastructure while trying to avoid strikes inside Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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