Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
15% Chance
The buildup gives Washington leverage for back-channel talks through Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland. Iran accepts a limited deconfliction arrangement to avoid a U.S. strike package, reducing the immediate risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.