Possible scenario
Deterrent Buildup Holds
45% Chance
The added U.S. special operations aircraft function mainly as a deterrent and contingency force rather than a prelude to immediate strikes. Tehran and Washington continue signaling resolve, but both sides avoid a direct escalation after the July attack on U.S. forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.