Possible scenario
High-Price Plateau
40% Chance
The most likely path is that retail diesel remains near record levels rather than breaking sharply higher. U.S. refinery outages, sanctions-driven trade frictions and elevated freight fuel costs keep prices sticky, while gradual refinery restarts prevent an immediate panic move.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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