Possible scenario
Oil Infrastructure Strikes
35% Chance
The evacuation order proves to be a pre-attack warning rather than rhetoric. Houthi drones or missiles target Saudi Aramco processing, refining, or export infrastructure, causing at least temporary disruption to Saudi output or refined-product flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Consumer Services -1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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